2010 Pac-10 Conference Tournament Preview
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nine team will converge on the Staples
Center in Los Angeles to compete for the Pac-10 Conference Tournament
championship beginning on Wednesday, March 10th.
The only member of the league that isn't competing for an automatic berth to
the NCAA Tournament is USC, which is ineligible for this event because of
self-imposed sanctions. Last season, the Trojans won the Pac-10 Tournament
title, so it is certainly disappointing for fans of that program that USC
won't have a chance defend the title. California enters as the top seed, but
in a conference with greater parity than almost any other in the nation, it is
hard to consider the Golden Bears a runaway favorite. They figure to be pushed
by second-seeded Arizona State and third-seeded Washington. Fourth-seeded
Arizona and fifth-seeded UCLA are both young teams, but there is enough talent
in place to score an upset. Sixth-seeded Oregon State is one of four teams
still in search of a Pac-10 Tournament title, and the team is slowly getting
better. Seventh-seeded Stanford was a disappointment over the last couple of
months, and the Cardinal need to get on track in a hurry. As for eighth-seeded
Oregon and ninth-seeded Washington State, neither are considered a legitimate
threat to capture the crown.
The Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars will meet on Wednesday in the
tournament's only opening-round affair, and the winner will earn the right to
fact top-seeded California in the quarterfinals. WSU has never won this
tournament and owns an unimpressive 5-10 record all-time in the event. The
Ducks have two Pac-10 tourney titles to their credit, the most recent of which
was earned in 2007. The player to watch for Washington State is sophomore Klay
Thompson, as he ranks third in the conference in scoring with 19.6 ppg. Reggie
Moore adds 12.6 ppg, and he is just a freshman. Tajuan Porter is the leading
scorer for Oregon, but it is highly unlikely that his 11.9 ppg and erratic
shooting will scare the Cougars. Malcolm Armstead leads the Ducks and ranks
third in the league with 4.43 apg. On Saturday, March 6th, Oregon beat
Washington State by a 74-66 final to close out the regular season.
The first of four quarterfinal-round matchups pits the fourth-seeded Arizona Wildcats against the fifth-seeded UCLA Bruins, and these two teams rank first
and second, respectively, in regard to Pac-10 Tournament championships.
Arizona has captured the crown four times, most recently in 2002, and the club
is 17-8 all-time in this event. As for UCLA, it has three titles to its
credit, including two in the last four years. Arizona is last in the
conference in scoring defense (71.9 ppg), but the club is third in scoring
offense (72.0 ppg). Freshman Derrick Williams leads the Wildcats with 15.7 ppg
and 7.0 rpg, while Nic Wise, a senior, provides 14.4 ppg and 3.4 apg. UCLA is
also led by a freshman, as Michael Roll is scoring 13.5 ppg on the strength of
his 42 percent shooting from three-point range. The Bruins rank last in the
10-team league in scoring margin, last in free-throw percentage and last in
three-point percentage defense, so the fact that they have been able to
overcome the shortcomings and win enough games to earn a five seed is
impressive. Arizona won both meetings with UCLA during the regular season.
As mentioned, top-seeded California will battle either Washington State or
Oregon in the quarterfinals, and the Golden Bears hope that they can claim
their first Pac-10 Tournament championship. Cal is the top free-throw shooting
team in the league and leads the conference in field goal percentage as well.
The Golden Bears are scoring 77.4 ppg while allowing 67.7 ppg to foes, and
they own the second-best scoring margin in the Pac-10. There is a wealth of
talent in the starting lineup, and four Cal players rank in the top-20 in the
league in scoring. Jerome Randle is fourth with 18.7 ppg, and fellow guard
Patrick Christopher is seventh with 16.0 ppg. Theo Robertson brings 13.8 ppg
to the mix, and Jamal Boykin contributes 11.7 ppg and 6.7 rpg. All four
players are seniors, providing Cal with plenty of experience.
The third-seeded Washington Huskies and sixth-seeded Oregon State Beavers will
square off on Thursday, and while OSU has never won this tournament, the
Huskies finished on top in 2005 and have split their 20 games in this event.
Washington possesses two of the Pac-10's top five scorers, as Quincy Pondexter
sits second with 20.2 ppg and Isaiah Thomas checks in with 17.2 ppg, good for
fifth place. Pondexter is third in the league with 7.8 rpg, and the fact that
he is shooting 54.3 percent from the floor despite constant attention from
defenders is impressive. The Huskies lead the league in scoring offense (80.5
ppg) and scoring margin (+10.0 ppg), and they are also tops in rebounding
margin (+4.6 rpg). As for Oregon State, it ranks ninth in the league in
scoring offense (60.0 ppg) and ninth in scoring margin (-1.2 ppg). The Beavers
shoot just 28.5 percent from three-point range, but the fact that they lead
the Pac-10 in steals has certainly helped their cause. Calvin Haynes leads OSU
with 12.7 ppg. Washington beat Oregon State by 12 points in the regular-season
finale, and by six points earlier in the campaign.
The final quarterfinal pairing features the second-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils and the seventh-seeded Stanford Cardinal. Stanford's lone title was
earned in 2004, and the team is 11-11 in this tournament. As for the Sun
Devils, they own a 5-11 mark in this event and have never earned the league's
automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. ASU is paced by Ty Abbott (12.0 ppg) and
Rihards Kuksiks (11.7 ppg), and Eric Boateng, who leads the conference in
field goal percentage (.653), is sixth in rebounding (7.0 rpg). The Sun Devils
are second in the league in scoring defense (58.1 ppg) and are the best three-
point shooting team (.371). Stanford always has a chance to win regardless of
the opposition because of the presence of Landry Fields, the top scorer in the
conference at 22.2 ppg. Fields is also second in rebounding with 8.7 rpg, and
with Jeremy Green (16.9 ppg) in the fold, the Cardinal may possess the top duo
in the Pac-10. Unfortunately, Stanford ranks last in the league in field goal
percentage defense. The Sun Devils beat the Cardinal in both head-to-head
meetings during the regular season.
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for a tenth straight season. The bottom four seeds of the eight-team field
will take part in fi
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The Bobcats
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2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview >>
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2010 Southeastern Conference Tournament Preview >>
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Slumping Lakers target win vs. Raptors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reigning NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers hope to avoid
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hardwood against the Toronto Raptors at Staples Center.
The Lakers dropped their
Thrashers, Predators both aim to avoid third straight loss >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of playoff hopefuls will try to avoid third
consecutive losses tonight when the Atlanta Thrashers host the Nashville
Predators at Philips Arena.
Both the Thrashers and Predators came out of the Olympic break with ba
Red Wings host Flames in matchup of playoff hopefuls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings will both be
aiming for a third straight victory when they meet in the Motor City tonight
for a battle between playoff hopefuls at Joe Louis Arena.
In addition to winning two straig
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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